The Economic and Political State of Somaliland: the World’s most Controversial “State”

The Economic and Political State of Somaliland: the World’s most Controversial “State”

By Garrett Zhou

Somaliland. Located on the Horn of Africa, it still is a region of Somalia. However, it's been vying for independence for decades. Before we actually get into the post, let's get you, as the reader, some basic background knowledge of Somaliland. It has an area of approximately 68,000 sq miles(176,000 sq km) and a population of 6.2 million people. Its capital and largest city is Hargeisa. Its official language is Somali with secondary languages such as Arabic and English. The official national religion is Islam. So, now that you have the basic background knowledge of Somaliland to understand the post, let's finish with a map and go on to the exciting stuff. 

[Map of the Horn of Africa → https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-africa-14115069&psig=AOvVaw3KXn6zHW5dFgKTbOdAzn0E&ust=1734481288779000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBQQjRxqFwoTCKj76rvErYoDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE]

Before British colonization, Somaliland was home to various Muslim kingdoms like the Isaaq Sultanate. In the early 19th century, the British made treaties with various clans in the area, henceforth establishing the Somaliland Protectorate. The UK granted this region independence on June 26, 1860, with a country name “The State of Somaliland”. Then, this country united with the Trust Territory of Somalia to form the Somali Republic. The union of these two groups has proved problematic, with Somaliland, the successor of British Somaliland, declaring independence after a 10-year civil war.   

In the past, Somaliland has had a couple of conflicts with Somalia. The most significant of these is the Somaliland Liberation War. In 1981, the Somali National Movement(SNM) started a rebellion against the ruling junta of Somalia led by General Siad Barre. This was the main front of part of the larger Somali Rebellion that had started 3 years prior. The conflict was in response to harsh policies enacted by the Barre regime against the main clan of Somaliland, the Isaaq. These policies included a declaration of economic warfare against the clan-family. The policies were put into place after the end of the Ogaden War in 1978. By early 1990, the SNM had taken many parts of Northern Somalia and quickly formed alliances with other clans in the region. This led to the Grand Conference of the Northern Clans in Burao between 27 April 1991 and 18 May 1991 that eventually led to the formation of Somaliland. Since then, there have been a couple of small skirmishes between the 2 areas but no large conflicts.

For its first 12 years of existence, Somaliland had no political parties but instead followed a traditional clan-based government. Political parties were introduced during the presidential elections and it was hoped that this would make representation not overtly clan based. The system of government established has an Executive government with a President, Vice, and legislative government, a bicameral legislature, and an independent judiciary. After several extensions, Somaliland made the transition to multi-party democracy in 2002. It is currently East Africa’s strongest democracy. However, it has some issues. It lacks a consistent taxation base and receives most of its support from private actors. Corruption still remains a problem and women receive virtually no representation. Because it is a democratic state that has done a great job governing itself, it has a strong claim to become a recognized country. 

As you may know, not being a country makes it difficult to create alliances on the international stage. In Somaliland, foreign relations are the responsibility of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Somaliland. Because it is not recognized, Somaliland only has official contacts with a few nations, such as Ethiopia, which has signed a Memorandum of Understanding(MOU) with Somaliland, and the UAE, who signed an agreement to manage and upgrade the Port of Berbera, which is already an economic hotspot for Somaliland and could grow much larger with the correct support and funding. Besides these two countries, Somaliland has de facto embassies with nations like the US and Taiwan, and has political contact with Ethiopia, Djibouti, Belgium, Canada, France, Ghana, Kenya, Norway, Russia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sweden, the UK, the US, and Yemen. That is a pretty long and powerful list of international contacts for an unrecognized region. Despite this, most multilateral organizations oppose Somaliland secession from Somalia. 

Speaking of multilateral organizations, the African Union took a fact-finding mission to Somalia in 2005 that resulted in favorable findings to support Somaliland’s claim of self-sovereignty. However, the African Union has not acted on these findings and actually hasn't involved Somaliland at all. According to this link, if the African Union were to recognize Somaliland, then it would be very likely that the UN would recognize it, making it more recognized globally. This would allow for Somaliland to receive aid, get access to UN peacekeeping troops, have a voice in the international community, gain access to UN agencies like UNICEF, and to establish bilateral agreements, which would benefit Somaliland in so many different ways. 

Now, let's get to what I love, which is the economy. In terms of raw natural resources, the region of Somaliland is in a great spot. Research indicates that it is rich in natural minerals as well as oil, natural gas, and coal. Most of the oil would be located off-shore, but evidence indicates that there is quite a bit of it. There is also evidence to indicate deposits of oil, gas, and coal inland, which would help boost the Somaliland economy. Somaliland has known deposits of minerals like gemstones, gold, iron, ore, tin, lead, as well as good industrial minerals like gypsum. Decorative gemstones also present a good economic possibility. Lastly, the country has vast quantities of excellent glass-making sand. Somaliland is very highly prospective but under-explored as of this moment according to the Somaliland Government. 

Although natural resources need to be explored more and possibly have huge potential, at the moment, the economy of Somaliland is very dependent on agriculture, making livestock its main export. With access to the sea and high prospective nations to ship and trade with, Somaliland is in a great location in terms of shipping and trade. It is located in a sea lane in which ⅓ of the world’s trade passes through. However, even with all this potential, Somaliland cannot take full advantage because it is not a recognized country. It cannot make trade agreements or alliances, nor does it have a voice in any international decisions about this trade route. It, like other African countries, would benefit tremendously from foreign trade. Somaliland is rich in natural resources, but lacks significant infrastructure. Trading oil or minerals in exchange for technology and infrastructure would be beneficial to Somaliland. Even though Somaliland can still trade with other countries, some are hesitant because of its status as a region. Therefore, these potential trade partners cannot interact with Somaliland in an official capacity. Additionally, these countries fear potential backlash from Somalia. Therefore, recognizing Somaliland as a country would be very beneficial to its economy. 

Somaliland’s situation with pirates is not as bad as Somalia, which is known worldwide for its piracy incidents. Most of the pirates target the end of the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Therefore, Somaliland’s piracy is not very high. However, making Somaliland a country could help stop piracy because Ethiopia would have naval access, which is beneficial to stopping pirates. 

Because Somaliland is not a recognized country, they don’t have any alliances and aren’t in any organizations of recognized countries. They only have a couple of contacts in countries, but no true partnerships. Joining an organization or creating an alliance would be beneficial to Somaliland in general, not just economically because of the allyship and aid that Somaliland would receive. 

Somaliland has a GDP per Capita of $1361 and an overall GDP of $7.6 billion. Most of this comes from Somalis working abroad, called the Somali diaspora, sending back remittances. This is actually very interesting. Lots of Somalis have migrated away and now continue to send back money to help rebuild their home country. International aid is difficult to send because Somaliland is unrecognized. If Somaliland were to be recognized, then they would be able to access UN agencies like UNICEF and also receive humanitarian aid as well, tremendously benefiting them. There is a small foundation of telecommunications in Somaliland, but the backbone of the economy is agriculture. This also accounts for a lot of their shipping as well. As I’ve said before, mining also has great potential, but it has been scarcely explored. Tourism also accounts for a bit of economic growth. Finally, oil has great potential. Somaliland and its surrounding oceans have an estimated 3 billion barrels of oil. This amounts to about $220 billion, which is huge compared to its current GDP. 

Overall, Somaliland is a raw country, just like a lot of the ones in Africa. Somaliland is abundant in natural resources, but is lacking in the necessary infrastructure to use these resources to their full potential. 

So, Somaliland has done almost everything right. It’s very democratic, it has no human rights abuses, and is relatively peaceful unlike its next-door neighbors. What, then, are the ways forward for Somaliland in terms of independence?

The new president, Mohamed Abdullahi, is going to push for sovereignty. This is a good step, but much more is needed for them to actually receive recognition. I believe that Somaliland has done everything within its power to legitimize its claim for independence. However, the deciding vote caster will be the AU or the UN. Like I said, I believe that if the AU recognizes Somaliland, then the UN will too. However, there are some obstacles to this. Many countries don’t want to support unilateral secessionist movements, and they also don’t want to set the precedent for other regions like Western Sahara to beg for their recognition too. Despite this, even being recognized by the AU is going to be a big step forward for Somaliland. One major question still remains.

Will Somalia agree? As Somalia believes that Somaliland is part of its territory, it might be difficult for Somalia to accept that Somaliland is gone. Many would argue that it would be for the better, but the ‘better’ part goes away if Somalia decides to attack Somaliland. If I had to take a stance, I would say it’s pretty 50-50, but Al-Shabaab tips the scales. Al-Shabaab is a terrorist group who wreaks havoc in Somalia. Lately, Ethiopia has been sending troops to help out. However, because Ethiopia has a great relationship with Somaliland, I don’t think Somalia will risk damaging the relationship if Somaliland gets recognized. 

[Somaliland’s current president, Mohamed Abdullahi → https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvzxg3n3dmo]

Now, onto my take. Should Somaliland get its independence or not? As you could probably tell from reading this post, I am in favor of Somaliland sovereignty. This would benefit the country in so many ways: economically, politically, and in terms of international relations. I also think that recognition would benefit the Horn of Africa as a whole, helping it become more stable and more prosperous. Now, the question remained: what would happen after independence? Would a conflict start? Although those are legit concerns, I truly believe that nothing will happen to Somaliland concerning a possible attack from Somalia. Somaliland would get more foreign direct investment(FDI), create more bilateral agreements, and overall become a better country if they were to gain recognition.

Now, let's conclude everything in the article. Somaliland is a region on the Horn of Africa that is currently the territory of Somalia. It has a complex history of colonization and sovereignty. Despite this, it declared independence to the world in 1991. However, no other countries formally recognize them to this day. I believe that Somaliland has a great case for recognition. It has good security, a surprisingly strong democracy, and good economic potential. In any case, it is doing much better than Somalia. Recognition by the African Union could lead to further recognition, which would be ultra-beneficial to Somaliland. Some benefits of UN recognition would be the ability to join trade agreements, access UN aid, and establish rock-solid deals with other countries. The main obstacles? Somalia, and the fact that most countries don’t want to support unilateral secessionist movements. However, I strongly believe in Somaliland’s future, which is why I support its recognition. Thanks for reading, and, as always, have a great day.